Infliacijos įtaka bankroto prognozavimo modelių tikslumui

LTKiekviena įmonė, vykdydama savo veiklą, siekia gauti pelną, tačiau veikti pelningai yra pakankamai sunku, nes įmonės nuolatos susiduria su verslo ir finansine rizika. Siekiant iš anksto įžvelgti kylančias nemokumo ir bankroto grėsmes, naudojami bankroto prognozavimo modeliai, kurie sudaryti iš santykinių finansinių rodiklių. Tyrimas parodė, kad patikima ir tiksli bankroto tikimybė gaunama tik įvertinus infliaciją. Kitais atvejais atsiranda tam tikra bankroto tikimybės paklaida, dėl kurios įmonėse gali būti priimami klaidingi sprendimai. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Bankrotas; Bankroto prognozavimo modeliai; Infliacija; Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy prediction models; Inflation.

ENActivities of each company are related to a lower or higher risk. It is important to continually assess and properly manage the risk, so that stability and continuity of operations would be ensured. However, some enterprises go bankrupt and this may cause many adverse consequences for all participants of the market. In order to evaluate the risks of insolvency and bankruptcy, there are used bankruptcy prediction models. The scientific literature contains a very wide range of bankruptcy prediction models, which is continuously expanding due to the newly emerging modern models. Lithuanian and foreign scientists attach great importance to the analysis of the bankruptcy prediction models: selection of an appropriate model, development or combination of several models, creation of a new model. The main aim of these studies is to determine, adapt or create a suitable model for predicting bankruptcy of today's businesses. Many of these bankruptcy prediction models consist of financial ratios. These models have been among the first ones developed and currently are the most widely used in practice. They have a simple and relatively accurate probability of bankruptcy, but do not take count of the differences in each country's economy. According to Begley, Ming, Watts (1996), in order to increase the reliability of these models, they must be continuously revised, considering inflation, interest rates, loan accessibility and other factors.Since inflation is regarded as one of the most acute problems the levels of which are constantly changing, the aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of inflation on accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. The subject of this paper is bankruptcy prediction models. Methods and approaches used in this paper are scientific literature analysis, synthesis, abstraction, induction, deduction, classification, and systematization. In the empirical analysis a case study and qualitative data analysis of financial reports of selected companies (the Vilnius Stock Exchange Official List) have been used. The inflation impact on the accuracy of the bankruptcy prediction models has been estimated by using the method of constant dollar accounting. The inflation impact on bankruptcy likelihood prediction models and their accuracy occurs at a higher general price level (inflation is about 10%) - when adjusted and before inflation there are different probabilities of corporate bankruptcy (the company got into different ranges of bankruptcy probability). Consequently, to obtain accurate and reliable results, it is important to consider inflation, particularly in these companies that have a lot of fixed assets and a significant share of capital. [From the publication]

• Vadyba / Management
• Ekonomika / Economics