Small states in the shatter belt: demographic and geopolitical challenges of the Baltic states
ENThis book explores the geopolitical dimension of states’ functioning as a fundamental element of international relations research. The growing interest in classical geopolitics confirms that the traditional understanding of power as the domain of states is experiencing a renaissance. Contemporary international relations, however, should be studied on a global scale, as an irreversible consequence of globalisation. From this perspective, regions particularly susceptible to change, especially those triggered by neo-imperialism and power politics, become crucial for both the stability and transformation of the global order. Although the main axis of the discourse on power in contemporary international studies is the analysis of the relationship between the former hegemon, the United States and its rival, China, it is worth examining the management of power by smaller and weaker state actors. This applies particularly to states whose geopolitical position exposes them to the aggressiveness of their great-power neighbours. Times of peace and stability create a favourable climate for the development of medium-sized and small states. The turmoil of the international order exposes them to an unpredictable future and even threatens their very existence. The authors aimed to draw readers’ attention to non-power states whose strategic position in the regions depends on the current balance of power and the policies of major powers and international institutions. They presented a specific group of post-communist states located in Baltic Europe (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia). Besides historical subordination to Russian / USSR influence, they share a common geographical location in the shatter belt, a zone of geopolitical instability. The complexity of geopolitical challenges weighs on these countries, especially when combined with the problems of ageing populations and depopulation.Just 35 years after regaining independence, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, located on the eastern flank of the EU and NATO, are demonstrating their inability to effectively defend themselves against the weaponisation of migrants. This phenomenon is a manifestation of Russian imperialism and intensified almost simultaneously with the outbreak of the full-scale war waged by Russia in Ukraine. For the small Baltic states, the introduction of migration by Russia and Belarus poses a serious challenge to border security, but above all, it demonstrates the lack of effective demographic policies in previous decades. The ageing populations of these countries generally support their governments’ cautious migration policies and exhibit strong nationalism, fuelled by fear of national minorities (hyper-securitisation). The authors noted similarities between these countries stemming from depopulation problems and the potential interference of national minorities (primarily Russia). The research undertaken in this book on the geopolitical problems of small states confirmed the authors’ original assumptions. As researchers of the Central and Eastern European region, they recognised the particular challenges related to the national security of the Baltic states, especially their existential security. Measurements of the scale of depopulation reinforced the conclusion that the hyper-securitisation of Russia – a powerful power neighbouring these states – is reflected in internal depopulation processes in the Baltic republics. The authors also thoroughly analysed migration threats, understood as the influx of undesirable, armed populations from other regions of the world, as well as the migration of citizens of these states beyond their homeland. They concluded that there is relatively little understanding and support for the expectations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from European institutions and the transatlantic security architecture.There remains a persistent impression of a lack of understanding of the concerns and needs regarding the demographic security of the Baltic states from Western allies and political partners. It seems that, as observers of geopolitical transformations in the Baltic Sea region, we are only witnessing, to a certain extent, a strengthening of the Baltic states’ security as a result of Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. Although memories of inter-war attempts to establish regional security structures are resurfacing in the political discourse of the region’s states, these should be viewed as expressions of wishful thinking, devoid of realism. The Baltic states maintain group solidarity, both in their policies towards national minorities and in their engagement in the normative dimension of international relations. However, the dispute between Lithuania and Chin over Lithuanian–Taiwanese relations has revealed the political disinterest of Western European states in supporting weak partners on the eastern flank of the EU and NATO. The change in the People’s Republic of China’s attitude towards the Baltic states, expressed in statements about the lack of international agreements sanctioning their independence, clearly heightens concerns about the future and security of Russia’s Baltic neighbours. Drawing on Daniel Frei’s theory, we are ready to conclude that the fear of an existential threat from the Baltic states is not an obsession with Russian minority hypersecuritisation, but one of the most realistic future scenarios. The authors hope that comparing the complex situations of the small Baltic states will allow readers to discover similarities in the geopolitical and demographic challenges faced by other countries located in the shatter belt.
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