Prospects of the American shale gas and LNG export to the Baltic states
ENGiven the trends in global LNG flows, there is plenty of flexibility around the globe to channel LNG deliveries towards destinations where it is needed the most and can be received based on either completely commercial considerations or with a bit of political context. If, for example, LNG demand in traditional prime markets in East Asia decreases, most likely LNG spot prices in Europe will become attractive for buyers. Under such conditions there might not even be any need to politically facilitate LNG flows from the U.S. to European destinations. On the other hand, countries like the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland, have been heavily dependent on gas supplies from Russia for many years. This has also meant no choice when it came to gas prices, until recent developments with gas market liberalisation in the Baltic states and construction of a number of LNG import terminals in the Baltic Sea in Finland, Lithuania, and Poland. Markets have been functioning for a very short time yet and might potentially be vulnerable to external manipulation. Establishing and functioning of a common gas market in the Baltic states is still a task ahead of the regulatory authorities as well as transmission system operators in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Under current circumstances, a friendly assistance in the form of advice and facilitated interest to supply LNG for a friendly, but fair price, would be a good learning scenario. Even more so because there would be learning by doing on both sides of the Atlantic.
