Changes of economic dependency ratio in Lithuania: statistical perspective of 25 years
LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Ekonominio priklausomybės santykis; Gyventojai; Socialinio draudimo sistema; Statistinė analizė; Darbo jėga; Economic dependency ratio; Population; Scial insurance system;; Statistical analysis; Workforce.
ENSince 1991 Lithuania meets the problem of continuous decrease of population. Economically the major risk of this phenomenon is related to the growth of the non-contributing population segment torn the whole active population. The research aims to analyze the changes of population structure in Lithuania and statistically predict the economic dependency ratio in 25 years perspective. The results of this research highlight the foiHicoming risk to the state's social insurance system if the current trend of high emigration and low birthrates remains the same. The developed statistical models allow predict the changes of State's Social Insurance Fund's income and expected old-age pensions having the significant decrease of economically active inhabitants. It was concluded that negative impact of this phenomenon on social insurance system can be compensated by the growth of personal income currently investing to the human capital, productivity and technological progress of the country. [From the publication]
