Giving face to Baltic foreign policies: the role of leaders and institutions in a time of transition (1991-1999)

ENNumerous studies on Baltic states’ foreign policy behavior have primarily relied on systemic and domestic levels-of-analysis, while explanations provided by the individual and institutional theoretical perspectives have been either discounted or overlooked thus far. This dissertation shows that leaders and political institutions are crucial factors that must be considered, in combination with theoretical explanations derived from systemic and domestic levels, in the examination o f Baltic foreign policies. A comparative case approach and qualitative (inductive analysis) and quantitative (content analysis) were applied to assess how nine key Baltic leaders have influenced the choices of their countries’ foreign policy preferences during the transitional years 1991- 1999. An explicit claim is made as to the conditions under which leaders matter, by pointing to the historical “windows of opportunity” or “critical junctures,” during which leaders have the most freedom of maneuver to emerge as “event-making” individuals. This study demonstrates inductively and empirically that the preferences of leaders indeed were reflected in the ranking of foreign policy goals of the three Baltic states.An extensive analysis of the dynamic roles that individual office-holders played in shaping foreign policymaking institutions is also presented. The study shows how particular individuals have used their office to advance their policy goals and preferences. The findings reveal that institutions that gained prominence in foreign policy sphere owed their success primarily to leading individuals who headed these structures; institutional relations and their hierarchical rankings were defined and redefined depending on key political personalities in charge o f these institutions; and that the preferences advanced by the institutional actors reflected preferences held by individuals who headed them. Examination of the roles of political institutions in Baltic foreign policymaking over the ten-year period also reveals that institutional roles and institutional influences can, and did, change. This dissertation offers both theoretical and practical contributions to research on small states, and it expands our understanding o f the foreign policy behavior of transitional small states, in particular, and international politics, in general. The intended audience includes academics, policymakers, analysts, diplomats, and students of international relations and foreign policy.