Fundamentaliosios analizės metodų taikymas akcijų kursų prognozavimui
LTĮmonės finansininko darbas vis stipriau siejasi su finansų rinkomis. Neatsitiktinai atsiranda poreikis specialistų, gebančių konsultuoti investicijų finansų rinkose klausimais. Kita vertus, dirbant finansų rinkų srityje, susiduriama su gausybe problemų. Viena iš jų - akcijų kursų vertinimas ir prognozavimas. Akcijos rinkos kainos prognozė yra vienodai svarbus ir aktualus klausimas tiek pavieniams investuotojams, tiek ir įmonėms. Finansų rinkų atžvilgiu įmonė gali užimti dvi skirtingas pozicijas: investuotojo arba emitento, tad ir vadovautis reikia dviem skirtingais požiūriais. Įmonei, kaip investuotojui (investuojant laikinai laisvas pinigines lėšas), svarbu pasirinkti akcijas įmonių, kurias pardavus būtų galima gauti papildomų pajamų, padidinant investuotas lėšas. O įmonei - emitentui, svarbu pritraukti jai reikalingų lėšų ir padidinti įmonės vertę. Neretai investuotojai, ieškodami nedavertintų įmonių akcijų, taiko fundamentalią akcijų analizę, kurios pagalba įvertinama bendra ekonomikos padėtis, sektoriaus, kuriam priklauso analizuojama įmonė (įmonės) padėtis, taip pat atliekama įmonių finansinė analizė. Taip pat reikėtų išskirti tai, jog fundamentali analizė nagrinėja kokybinius ir kiekybinius rodiklius. Investuotojui, neturinčiam ekonomikos pagrindų, gana sunku teisingai įvertinti makro, mikro ekonominius ir paties emitento rodiklius, galinčius įtakoti akcijos rinkos kurso dinamiką. Interneto svetainėse, skirtose investuotojams, pateikiami apskaičiuoti akcinių bendrovių santykiniai kapitalo rinkos ir pelningumo rodikliai, ekonominės bei paties emitento naujienos.Tai didelis palengvinimas fundamentalią analizę naudojantiems investuotojams, tačiau problema yra tame, kaip teisingai įvertinti ir prognozei panaudoti gaunamą informaciją. Straipsnyje nagrinėjamas praktinis fundamentaliosios analizės panaudojimo galimybių variantas. Tiriama akcijų kursų dinamikos priklausomybė nuo įmonių santykinių finansinių rodiklių pokyčių, taikant ekonominės statistikos metodus. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Akcijų kursai; Fundamentali analizė; Koreliacija; Regresija; Regresinė analizė; Santykinių rodiklių metodas; Tiesinis trendas; Vienfaktorinė analizė; Correlation; Fundamental analysis; Linear trend; Method of financial ratios; Predicting stock exchange; Regression; Regression analysis; Stock market rates; Stock prices; Univariate analysis.
ENCompany accountant work is strongly associated with financial markets. Often is heard complaints not only from liability companies but also from private companies owners, it is difficult to find professionals who are able to advice on issues of investment in financial markets. On the other hand working in the financial markets face lot of problems. One of them -the stock evaluation and forecasting courses. Shares market price forecasts are equally important and both individual and business investors. From the financial markets point of view company can occupy two different positions: an investor or issuer, and thus follow two different approaches. Company as an investor (investing temporarily free cash) it is important to select company's shares, which could be sold for additional income by increasing the cost of investment. The company - issuer, it is important to raise the necessary resources and to increase the value of the company. In most cases, investors are looking for unvalued companies' shares, they use fundamentally analysis to examine the general economic situation, the sector, which includes analysis of company (company), the situation, as well as financial analysis of company. Investor not having economic base, rather difficult to correctly assess the macro-, micro-economic indicators and the issuer itself, which may affect the stock market rate. On the web sites for investors there is information about capital market and financial profitability, economic news about companies. This is a great help to investors using fundamental analysis, but the problem is how to evaluate and correct prediction using available information.This article deals with the practical usability of Fundamental Analysis. Investigated the dynamics of the shares rate dependence of company's relative indices using economic statistics methods. The aim of work - To evaluate the predictability of the market value of the stocks, using the issuer's fundamental financial indicators and their analysis. Tasks of the work: 1) To reveal the fundamental nature of the analysis and assessment of the origin the use of the opportunities; 2) To analyse and calculate the selected joint-stock company's financial capital market and the relative profitability, comparing the five-quarter changes in the dynamics; 3) To evaluate the factors that may affect the market price of the stocks, using the pair correlation calculation; 4) By the linear trend support to carry out stock price forecast and predictive data to compare with actual data. Methods of the work: Scientific literature analysis and synthesis, alignment, base, chain and sites of aggregation methods, correlation and graphical methods. In the very beginning discussing the fundamental nature of the analysis highlights the fact that the study carried out only the issuer's analysis, freeing themselves of the macro-and microeconomic factors. Distinguishes fundamental analysis advantages and disadvantages and the procedure methods. In the work take close look in to four different business sectors and the characteristics of the five issuers of quarterly financial reports for analysis, the calculation of capital markets and financial profitability relative terms. The survey indicators of changes in dynamics, using chain and the basic comparison method. Posts summation method used to compare issuers indicators.At the work performed univariate analysis to find the relationship between relative financial indicators and stock price dynamics, using the pair correlation study. Secreted by the main indicators are most relevant for the stock market value and according to their projected 2011 I quarter of the market stock price. The market value and profitability of the financial indicators of the relative value of the shares affected by the investigation revealed that based on the impact of stock market value can only hold three of the eight sub-jects' relative financial performance. Strong or very strong correlation was found only between: share price and earnings per share ratio (P / E), the company's sales value (P / S), share price and its book value ratio (P / BV) ratios and stock market prices. (Correlation coefficient of r from 0.84 to 0.99). These indicators are used for forecasting stock market prices. In 2011. The first quarter of ratios and stock market price forecast and the data obtained compared with the actual data from this period, it is concluded that the use of these indicators Univariate analysis to predict stock market prices cannot be predicted because of stock market prices do not actual data. The analysis suggests that it is appropriate to repeat the study in the multifactor analysis, which identifies several factors influence stock market prices. It is also used to study periods and a greater number of issuers, it would allow this study to verify the hypothesis that issuers of financial indicators influence the dynamics of stock market prices. Share price affects not only the issuer's financial performance, but also the supply - demand model, and investor expectations, and rumours. [Text from author]
