Lietuvos bendrasis vidaus produktas: struktūra ir jos pokyčiai

LTBendrasis vidaus produktas (BVP) yra vienas iš svarbiausių makroekonomikos rodiklių, atspindintis šalies ekonomikos padėtį. BVP struktūros pokyčių analizė leidžia valstybei pasirinkti tinkamą struktūrinės politikos kryptį. Valstybės ūkio struktūra susiklosto per ilgą laikotarpį, veikiant įvairiems išorės veiksniams, tuo pat metu ji yra ir kintanti. Pagrindinius ūkio struktūros pokyčius veikia mokslo ir technologijų pažanga, ekonomikos augimo būdas ir tempai, gyventojų gyvenimo lygis ir su juo susijusi paklausa įvairioms prekėms ir paslaugoms, šalies gamtos turtai, istorinės ūkio raidos sąlygos ir atitinkamo laikotarpio ekonominės politikos uždaviniai. Struktūros pasikeitimo problema iškyla tiriant struktūros evoliucijos klausimus, nagrinėjant vieno ar kito sudėtino proceso genezės problemą. Tokiais atvejais reikia nustatyti, kaip buvusi struktūra transformavosi į esamą, koks buvo struktūrinių poslinkių keitimosi mechanizmas. Tyrimo uždavinys - sudaryti bendrojo vidaus produkto struktūros pokyčių tyrimo metodologiją ir įvertinti struktūros pokyčius Lietuvoje 1995–2005 m. laikotarpiu. Lietuvoje specialioje literatūroje nėra išsamesnių tikslinių bandymų, kurie pateiktų aiškią metodiką BVP struktūrai ir jos pokyčiams identifikuoti. Tyrimo rezultate buvo nustatyti, aptarti ir skaičiavimais patikrinti metodai, pakankami BVP struktūros pokyčiams identifikuoti, parodyta, jog šiais metodais gaunami duomenys ekonominei politikai koreguoti, aptarti momentai, svarbūs sprendžiant ūkio statistikos praktikos problemą – duomenų tikslumo ir patikimumo problemą.Reikšminiai žodžiai: Bendras vidaus produktas; Struktūriniai pokyčiai; įvertinimas; Gross domestic product; Structural changes; Evaluation.

ENThe aim of this thesis is to evaluate structural changes of the gross domestic product of Lithuania in the period 1995-2005 and to examine the relationship between the measure of structural changes and the growth rate of GDP. The structural change is actually the change in the composition of its components. The standard method for the identification of structural changes is to measure the changes in the share of a certain component or the intensity of structural changes in a certain component's shares of GDP using the ratio of the shares. In order to assess the overall change in the structure of GDP, different equations of measure of structural changes are presented in this thesis; all of them have similar properties. The one we use in the thesis is based on a modified Theil’s coefficient. There are two main indexes for measuring the overall structural change. The first is a year-to-year measure, which measures the intensity of structural changes and paints a picture of short-term dynamics of the structural change process (the so-called chain index of structural change). The second index compares the structure of each year with the structure of the comparison or base year and paints a picture of long-term dynamics of structural changes (the so-called base index of structural change). It was found out that the chain index of structural change has a tendency to decline and is relatively small. The base index of the structural change of GDP calculated by the production method has a tendency to grow, i.e. the structure of a subsequent year will differ from the structure of a comparison year, and its magnitude is estimated as an average.The same situation is with the GDP structure calculated by the expenditure method, with the difference that both indexes of structural changes are relatively small. The structure of GDP calculated by the income method also did not change dramatically during the observed time period. Only in 1999, when the Lithuanian economy was affected by the crisis in Russia, the structure of GDP calculated by the income method experienced an average structural change. Since then, both indexes of the structural change have been decreasing, i.e. the income structure of GDP has become more stable. It was found out that there was a negative relationship between a chain index of structural change in the GDP structure and the growth rate of GDP. When a structural change increases, the growth rate decreases. However, in Lithuania's case, this relationship appeared to be statistically insignificant. Then the regression between the structural change index and growth of GDP was estimated, and, using the official projections of GDP growth rates for 2006 and 2007, it was forecasted that there would be small indexes of structural change in 2006 and 2007, which means that in the nearest future the structure of Lithuania's GDP would not change dramatically. It was also estimated that a 1% increase in the growth rate of the services sector conditions the increase in the GDP growth rate by 0.75%, industry - by 0.24%, agriculture and construction - by 0.06% each. [From the publication]