The EU's strategic autonomy in foreign policy: European responses to American and Chinese influence over the arms embargo on China and Taiwan

ENThe article examines the European Union’s response to United States and Chinese attempts to influence its foreign policy, focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. It explores how member states balance great power pressures and how the EU is mobilised in these dynamics. Through case studies on the EU’s arms embargo against China and Europe’s evolving stance on Taiwan, the article examines the influence mechanisms at play. Critical junctures are analysed using a process tracing methodology and include attempts to lift the arms embargo (2003–2005, 2010), China’s coercion of Lithuania after a Taiwan office opening, Macron’s Taiwan-related statements in 2023 and Hungary’s alignment with the ‘One China Principle’. Findings reveal a complex interplay between member states, supra national institutions and external pressures, highlighting the EU’s efforts to formulate an autonomous foreign policy amid the US- China rivalry. The article advances an understanding of the EU’s role in navigating contemporary great power competition. Keywords: European union; foreign policy; Indo-pacific; great power; strategic autonomy.