Russia-Baltic relations after Crimea’s annexation: reasons for concern?
ENWhen the Baltic states gained NATO and EU membership ten years ago, the dual accession was believed to have resolved the security dilemma of the Baltic states vis-a-vis their regional hegemon Russia. In fact, before Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, a territorial assault on the Baltic states seemed implausible even while Moscow’s efforts to maintain influence in the Baltic region left no doubt. Nevertheless, like Crimea, all three states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are of strategic importance to Russia. While Crimea serves as the base of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and a pathway to the Mediterranean, the Baltic states possess ice-free ports and a window to the West that have made them targets of Russia’s expansionism since the times of Peter the Great. As the Russian armies surrounded the eastern and southern borders of Ukraine, where separatist sentiment was stirring, various commentators argued that the Baltic states do have reason for concern. On the one hand, as NATO members, the Baltic states have the security of Article V not afforded to Ukraine. On the other hand, Moscow’s ability to conduct a shadow war in Ukraine, the increasing Russian military activity in the Baltic sea region, and Vladimir Putin’s insistence of protecting Russian ‘compatriots’ abroad are all legitimate red flags for the Balts and their allies.
