Theoretical old-age pension benefits and replacement rates in the Baltic states: a retrospective simulation
ENThe author presents a comparative analysis of old-age pension systems in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania using a method of retrospective simulation run on a self-developed model. The model baseline case is a person retiring in December 2014 after 40 years of service with nationwide average salary. Other cases include lowand high-earners, funded schemes participants and simulations for modified notional capital valorisation formulae. Three study coun- tries return very dissimilar results, which is caused by differences in their pension systems’ designs. Lack of non-contributory element (basic pension) in Latvia leads to a low degree of progressivity, with inexcusably low pensions to low-earners and excessively generous pensions to high-earners. Participation in funded pillar II schemes has not brought any significant gains to pension plan sharers. Notional capital valorisation rules adopted in different countries that use the NDC-system significantly influence pension amount.
