The Impact of electric vehicles’ market expansion on wholesale electricity price - the case of Lithuania

ENDriven by environmental policy making, electro-mobility has become a crucial tool to mitigate the transport induced CO2 emissions and is being subsidized by Governments, creating more incentives for end users to adopt it. This article addresses the extensive e-mobility transition’s influence on the wholesale electricity market in Lithuania. The analysis is set up to picture the market in 2025, when the number of vehicles is expected to reach around 20 thousand. Three different days are selected, where increased demand exerts significant pressure on the system, and which represent separate characteristic seasons consumption-wise; the corresponding electricity price changes are estimated. With the predicted market behaviour having an additional load from EVs charging, the wholesale price effect is identified and quantified. Prices may rise from about 7.5% in Summer time to almost 20% in the Winter season. These findings raise interesting policy implications and anticipate a discussion regarding societal fairness.