Deterring Russia in the Baltics

ENThe Baltic states are among the most vulnerable NATO member states. Their combined military capabilities are no match for the strength of the Russian forces stationed across the border. This was not regarded as a problem before 2014, but the annexation of Crimea and the start of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine have stoked fears that Russia may initiate military aggression against the Baltic states. This terrifying possibility has galvanised NATO and led to considerable efforts to build a sufficient and sustainable deterrent in the Baltic region. The concept of deterrence was largely absent from discussions on security in the Baltic region before 2014, but lately, the Baltic states have increasingly conceptualised their relations with Russia through the lens of deterrence. The first two parts of the paper look at the present deterrence arrangements in the Baltic region and the reasons why those can be sufficient for now, while the third part identifies potential problems stemming from the present NATO deterrence posture in the Baltic region.