The Baltic states and Russia - on diplomatic dimensions of security

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Baltijos šalys (Baltic states); Diplomatija; Diplomatiniai aspektai; NATO; Saugumas; Užsienio politika; Baltic countries; Baltic states; Diplomacy; Diplomatic dimensions; Foreign policy; NATO; Security; Rusija (Russia).

ENAny conversation about the security of the Baltic States is bound to focus mainly on Russia. This has been the case ever since 1991 – the Baltic States have always been suspicious of Russia and Russia’s aspirations regarding the Baltics have always been hard to read, thus contributing to suspicions. At times, outsiders may have found this mutual animosity bafflingly over-emotional and out-dated. But after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the question of Baltic security returned to international attention, occupying a prominent place on NATO’s agenda. Even so, Russia’s aspirations towards the Baltics remain somewhat of an enigma to the West. This author’s view is that Russia has essentially given up on being a dominant power in the Baltic States. In its worldview centred on “spheres of influence,” Russia sees the Baltics as having been lost to the US’ “sphere of influence”; and in the current circumstances, Moscow does not intend to challenge it. But the Baltics are also viewed as America’s “soft underbelly” – a place where Moscow can challenge the US if/when it feels, rightly or wrongly, endangered in some other theatre. Also, should Western institutions crumble, and NATO indeed become obsolete, then Moscow will likely have a fresh look at what it wants and what it considers possible, which may lead to it to upgrading its ambitions in the Baltics.From here, it follows that the Baltic States’ security is in fact backed up by Western unity as such, and the correctness of Western community’s reading of Russia and its global – not just regional – policy goals. NATO’s post-2014 reinforcements in the Baltics are essential for the region’s security, given how things stand today. However, in case the West’s unity crumbles and it ceases being a meaningful political entity, or in case the West gets the bigger picture disastrously wrong, these reinforcements are unlikely to save the Baltics and may even turn out to be fairly obsolete in a new context. This article looks at the role the Baltic States have so far played in these bigger questions – understanding Russia and shaping Western policy towards Russia – and asks how the Baltics could do more and better. [Extract, p. 148]