Threats to sustainability of national pension systems: the results of European and Baltic expert poll

ENThe paper presents the results of the expert poll, where leading experts from 11 European countries were asked to fi ll the questionnaire elaborated by the author. The proposed answers’ entries have been developed on the basis of the analysis of respective academic literature and the author’s previous research. The answers were collected in person and electronically by e-mail in September–October 2015. The total amount of the responded questionnaires – 15 (7 experts from the Baltic States and 8 from other European countries). The fi rst and foremost threat to future adequacy and overall sustainability of pension systems is population ageing. On the second place the experts from the Baltic States put the problem of labour market globalisation, leading to emigration of working-age population and further worsening of dependency ratio. The third place in this rating is taken in the Baltics by shadow economy with a signifi cant amount of persons’ earnings not covered by social insurance. With the growing importance of the funded pillars, the sustainability of future pensions can be undermined also by poor performance of private pension funds, not able to generate suffi cient levels of profi tability. All the experts have also agreed that the sustainability may be threatened by disadvantageous labour market patterns: unemployment, part-time employment, spread of freelance and self-employment not properly secured by social insurance schemes. The overall level of concern demonstrated by the Baltic experts is higher than that of their colleagues from other European countries.