The Multi-speed Baltic States: reinforcing the defence capabilities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia

ENThe past few years have proven that the political consensus concerning defence investments and the presence of allied forces developed by the Baltic states in response to the annexation of Crimea is durable. Since 2014, subsequent cabinets, regardless of the differences in their political agendas, have continued or intensified actions taken by their predecessors in defence policy. Maintaining the tempo of increasing defence spending creates new possibilities regarding the modernisation of the Baltic states’ armed forces. In 2017, their defence budgets taken together were almost double what they had been in 2013. Starting from 2018, all three countries will allocate at least 2% of GDP to defence. Although, when compared to Russian military power, NATO battalion-size battlegroups are of low combat value, the Baltic states view them as a significant contribution to their own limited defence capabilities. Air defence is the most visible gap in the capabilities of the NATO forces. This is the reason why the Baltic states have been making efforts in order to ensure that medium-range air defence systems are deployed in their territory. The deployment of the NATO battalions means that the persistent rotational presence of the US company-size units in the Baltic states will be replaced with periodical exercises of elements of the US Armored Brigade Combat Team stationed in Poland. Ensuring the permanent presence of American forces will be the most important thing for the Baltic states as they view the US as the main guarantor of their security.The Baltic states are often viewed by the West and Russia as a single region. However, the different economic and demographic potentials, strategic cultures and geographic location result in differences in their defence solutions. Estonia is devoted to a conscript-based army with a significant reserve force, Latvia is developing professional army with a small reserve, and Lithuania has decided to combine the two models. Over the past few years, Lithuania has taken the most active and comprehensive measures of all the Eastern flank countries to improve its capabilities to defend its own territory. Lithuania is turning from a country which used to cut military expenditures into a new defence policy leader among the Baltic states. This has been possible owing to the rapid increase in its defence spending in 2013–2017.