Bendro mirtingumo ir vidutinės tikėtinos gyvenimo trukmės alternatyvi prognozė Lietuvoje mažinant mirtingumą nuo penkių išvengiamų mirties priežasčių

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Alkoholis; Išvengiamas mirtingumas; Mirtingumas; Prevencija; Prognozė; Rizikos veiksniai; Rūkymas; Alcohol; Avoidable mortality; Prediction; Prevention; Risk factors; Smoking; Smoking, alcohol, prevention.

ENThe aim of the study was to predict overall mortality and life expectancy after reduction smoking and alcohol drinking prevalence in population aged 20–64 years followed by reduction of mortality from five avoidable death causes. Material and methods. Prevent model was used to predict mortality and life expectancy depending on current situation. Data on demographic situation and population health status (mortality, smoking and alcohol drinking prevalence) and relationship between two risk factors and five avoidable death causes (lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, COPD, liver cancer and liver cirrhosis) were used. Mortality was calculated at two scenarios ("scenario without intervention" and "scenario with intervention"). Intervention scenario was set to calculate mortality if prevalence of risk factors in population aged 20–64 decreases by 50 percent (for each risk factor). Results are provided as change of total deaths, predicted overall mortality rate and predicted life expectancy. Results. If smoking and alcohol consumption prevalence decreases by 50 percent in ages 20–64, predicted mortality from five avoidable death causes would slightly contribute to reduction of overall mortality and prolongation of life expectancy. Male mortality would be reduced by 24.5 death per 100000 pop., and female mortality could be reduced by 7 death per 100000 pop. by 2025. Life expectancy could be prolonged by 0.5 years for males and by 0.2 years for females by 2060. The most overall mortality decrease and life expectancy prolongation would be achieved if mortality from ischaemic heart disease would be reduced with other public health promotion interventions, not only smoking and alcohol consumption prevention. Conclusions. Study results show slight impact of smoking and alcohol consumption prevention to overall mortality and life expectancy.Nonetheless smoking and alcohol consumption prevention could contribute to reduction of overall mortality and life expectancy prolongation by reduction of mortality from other death causes that were not included in our study but are also caused by smoking and alcohol consumption. [From the publication]