Ekologinės gamybos būdo pasirinkimą lemiančių veiksnių vertinimas

• Kriščiukaitienė, Irena
• Eirošius, Šarūnas
• Namiotko, Virginia

LTPasaulyje vis labiau populiarėjant ekologinės gamybos būdui, aktualu tyrinėti jo pasirinkimą lemiančius veiksnius. Tyrimo metu buvo sudarytas „logit“ modelis, įgalinantis vertinti veiksnius, lemiančius ūkininkų apsisprendimą užsiimti ekologine gamyba, ir atliktas ekologiškų produktų gamintojų lūkesčių poveikis tikimybei užsiimti ekologine žemdirbyste. Nustatyta, kad didžiausios įtakos ūkininkų apsisprendimui plėtoti ekologinę gamybą turi parama. Tiesioginės įtakos ekologinės žemdirbystės pasirinkimui turi ūkio dydis. Ryšys tarp ūkinės veiklos pajamų, ūkio specializacijos ir tikimybės užsiimti ekologine gamyba yra atvirkštinis, o ūkininkų apsisprendimui pereiti prie ekologinės gamybos jų amžius nėra svarbus. Scenarijų analizė parodė, kad visais atvejais tikimybė užsiimti ekologine gamyba ūkyje, kuriame neauginama gyvulių, yra didesnė nei plėtojančiame gyvulininkystę. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Ekologinės gamybos būdas; Lūkesčiai; „Logit“ modelis; Organic farming; Expectations; "Logit" model.

EN[...] The aim of this paper is to assess the factors that influence the decision to adopt organic farming practices. The following tasks are therefore set: to compare the results of similar studies of the other countries within the European Union; to make a logit model which could evaluate probabilities to switch to organic farming; and to assess the influence of farmers' expectations on the probability to switch to organic farming. Factors influencing farmers' decision on adopting or not were analysed. Many studies (Laajimi and Albisu (1998), Pietola and Oude Lansink (2001), Darnhofer, Schneeberger and Freyer (2005), Genius, Pantzios and Tzouvelekas (2006), Acs, Berentsen and Huirne (2007), Ferto and Forgacs (2009), Mala and Maly (2013)) have been reviewed. According to those, the most relevant factors that influence the decision to convert from conventional to organic farming include farmer characteristics, farm structure, farm management, exogenous factors, and attitudes and opinions. A logit model was estimated on a cross-sectional data set of Lithuanian farmers for the period 2011. In total there were 160 organic farms and 240 conventional farms in the sample. The logit model was chosen based on these advantages: although the probabilities (of necessity) lie between 0 and 1, the logits are not so bounded; although the logit model is linear in independent variables, the probabilities themselves are not.This property is in contrast with the linear probability model, where the probabilities increase linearly with regressors; as many regressors as may be dictated can be added by the underlying theory in the logit model; when values of variables are known, it is easy to calculate probabilities. Hypotheses based on previous empirical literature were tested by models explicitly accounting for theeffects of farm-specific variables like farm size, farm type, farmers' age, subsidies, farm employees and income. The model had a multicolinearity problem. The correlation coefficient was significantly high between variables of income and employees, and the factor of farm employees was thus eliminated in order to solve the multicolinearity. Farmers' age was not a statistically significant regressor, so it was also eliminated from the logit model. All other variables were significant with a 95% probability, except for farm size (with a probability of 90%). The results of tests of the model goodness to fit were positive and led to a conclusion that this model is acceptable for further analysis. In addition, 93% of predictions with this model were correct. That shows quite a high accuracy. [...]. [From the publication]