Kaimo žmogiškųjų išteklių pasiūlos prognozavimas

LTStraipsnyje kaimo žmogiškųjų išteklių pasiūla prognozuota dinaminių eilučių ir tiesioginio prognozavimo metodais. Prognozuojant dinaminių eilučių metodu, atlikta kaimo gyventojų skaičiaus ir demografinių rodiklių už 1990-2001 m. statistinė analizė: jos bazėje sudarytos regresijos lygtys ir pagal jas prognozuota iki 2004 metų kaimo žmogiškųjų išteklių pasiūla. Išvadose glaustai pateikiamos nustatytos svarbiausios kaimo žmogiškųjų išteklių pasiūlos tendencijos.

ENThe relevance of the problem on the supply of agricultural labour resources is determined by the complex economic, social and demographical situation in country's agrarian sector: uncoordinated supply and demand, unemployment in the country, disagreements between real development tendencies of agricultural labour resources and raised requirements by EU or while orienting by themselves towards development tendencies of agricultural labour resources of some EU countries. In practice such main rates on the supply of human resources are applied more often: the number of registered in placement services or looking for work people, supply intensity, supplement-supply variation coefficient of the labour market. For the needs of the labour supply analysis, unemployed are classified while singling out women, men, education level, main professions, long-lasting unemployed and other social-demographical groups. It is advisable to group unemployed according to unemployment reasons as well: redundancy; winding-up of enterprises; bankruptcy; to given the chuck on their own request; to given the chuck due to irregularity; starting to work (school-leavers, graduates); willing to employ haven't not worked for a long time. The grouping of unemployed according to professional-qualifying and social-demographic features, which influence their competitive ability in labour market allow to realistically evaluate labour force reserves and foresee more exactly, more particularly arrange and successfully realize occupation and employment programs.Usually the number of citizens is forecasted by the method of trend extrapolation, which is very simple, though very often not so exact. The use of time - dynamic rows allows to mathematically surely forecast the development of the object. The calculations are being carried out in the base of time rows. It is forecasted that the number of citizens in the country till 2003 will increase and 1184.33 thousand people will be living in the country in 2003. Natality in the country from 2001 is about to decrease (10.3 newborns for one thousand that year). It is forecasted that 9.4 newborns will be born to one thousand citizens in 2004. Mortality of country people is about to reach 17.2 for one thousand. Migration inside Lithuania (between country and town) is decreasing, however more people migrate from town to country than vice versa. Therefore due to this factor the number of citizens in the country should increase.