Biodegalų gamyba Lietuvoje: perspektyvinės raidos modeliavimas
LTPastaraisiais metais smarkiai išaugus biodegalų vaidmeniui ir Lietuvai prisiėmus įsipareigojimus dėl atsinaujinančių išteklių panaudojimo transporte mastų, atsirado aiškus poreikis detaliai analizuoti biodegalų gamybos sektoriaus raidos bei naujų technologijų optimalaus integravimo galimybes. Šiame metodologiniams modeliavimo aspektams skirtame straipsnyje nagrinėjami mokslinėje literatūroje publikuoti biodegalų perspektyvinės raidos modeliavimo principai, apžvelgiama esama biodegalų gamybos situacija Lietuvoje ir pristatomas matematinis modelis, skirtas biodegalų gamybos perspektyviniam modeliavimui. Šis modelis yra pagrįstas sąnaudų minimizavimu (biodegalų gamyba ekonomiškai efektyviausiu būdu) ir apima empiriškai įvertinamus ryšius tarp naftos bei biodegalų žaliavų kainos. Modelyje sudarytos galimybės atspindėti esminius biodegalų gamybos procesus, kurie turi reikšmingos įtakos ekonominiams rodikliams. Dėl lanksčios modelio struktūros yra galimas biodegalų gamybos šalutinių produktų skirtingų panaudojimo alternatyvų matematinis modeliavimas. Be to, modelyje naudojami principai leidžia nesudėtingai analizuoti ir pažangesnių biodegalų platesnį panaudojimą bei konkurencingumą. Toks tiek techninius, tiek ekonominius faktorius apimantis modelis įgalina sudaryti pakankamai realistišką biodegalų gamybos vaizdą ir analizuoti biodegalų gamybos perspektyvinę raidą įvertinant įvairius galimus scenarijus.
ENAccording to the directive 2009/28/EC Lithuania as well as other European Union countries has an obligation to achieve a 10 percent level of energy from renewable energy sources (RES) in the final energy consumption in transport. From the point of view of society, there is a strong interest to investigate how biofuel production capacities should be developed and operated in order to achieve this target in the most rational way. The aim of the article is to create a mathematical model for analysis of long-term development of biofuel production in Lithuania. The structure of the paper is as follows. First part of the paper discuss methodological approaches related to the modelling of biofuel development, second part presents current situation of biofuel production in Lithuania, and in the third part there is presented proposed structure and general features of mathematical model for analysis of long-term modelling of biofuel development. In the previous researches it has been determined that relationship between world oil prices and prices of the first generation biofuel feedstock is significant. Oil price has an impact on the main components of the feedstock cost: on the one hand, large part of expenses of wheat production is directly related to oil and other energy products. On the other hand, prices of biofuel feedstock are related to oil price as they are partial substitutes.All these relationships as well as technical, legislative aspects and uncertainties have been taken into account when long- and medium-term development of biofuel production capacities has been modelled. Oil price in the model was considered as the most important exogenous factor, which is able to make a strong indirect influence on changes of biofuels production’s cost structure. A mixed button-up approach has been used in this model when particular technologies have been modelled. This means that the model is focused on the performance of each individual technology producing biofuels and more general results could be received by aggregation of individual plants performance. Model is designed to optimize capacity building and production processes from different perspectives. Minimization of total discounted cost of biofuel production, as an objective function of the model, was chosen in order to get the most socially acceptable biofuel development pathway.
