Finansinio skatinimo priemonių įtaka individualių namų šildymo raidai
LTSiekiant paskatinti atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių naudojimą ir padidinti energijos vartojimo gyvenamuosiuose pastatuose efektyvumą, daugelyje šalių yra taikomos finansinės priemonės. Straipsnyje analizuojamos šių skatinimo priemonių taikymo galimybės Lietuvos individualių gyvenamųjų namų šildymo sistemų atnaujinimui. Išanalizavus galimus finansinio skatinimo būdus pristatomas matematinis modelis, skirtas tirti skatinimo priemonių taikymo šildymo sistemų atnaujinimui poveikį. Analizuojant įvairius skatinimo scenarijus, kuriuose įvertinami tokie veiksniai, kaip galimi energijos išteklių pasiūlos pokyčiai, nustatoma tinkamiausia finansinio skatinimo apimtis.
ENThe development of heating systems in private households as well as implementation of progressive energy saving technologies could be defined as an event that does not have enough market self-regulation mechanism therefore the interference of government can be defensible. This paper examines a possible impact of financial support schemes on investments for RES heating technologies to the development of heating systems of individual houses in Lithuania. Several patterns of financial incentives for renewal of dwelling-house heating systems are discussed in this article. After analysis of measures implemented in Western Europe a conclusion was made that the most socially acceptable form of maintenance for the dwellers are renewing heating systems, would be direct financial support. In order to analyse the impact of financial promotion of development and operation of heating systems in Lithuanian individual houses a special mathematical model was developed and used. The model was developed under MESSAGE package. This model is a linear programming model which represents a full variety of heating systems of individual houses in the household sector in the country and covers all processes from fuel supply to satisfaction of consumers' needs heating and hot supply water in different categories of houses. In a special way it takes into account an implication of financial promotion measures for RES heating technologies. Various financial support measures and parameters related to uncertainties about future (fuel prices, discount rate, heat demand) were reflected in 72 different scenarios.Analysis of different scenarios had an objective to set what impact RES support schemes have on the structure of generating capacities of the heating system, what is penetration of additional RES technologies into the markets and what impact on these factors different variable or uncertain elements have. The results of modelling showed that introduction of effective financial promotion measures on investments as a means of support to individual investment in RES-heading appliances will change significantly the stock of heating technologies (boilers) but will have only a moderate impact on RES consumption in the Lithuanian household sector. Looking at the RES penetration rate, rational support is about 20-30% from total installation cost or 40-50% from equipment cost. Taking into account possible uncertainties and assuming the most reasonable a 30% support level for total installation cost, an expected annual spending from the state budget could be about 10 million euros.
