Evaluation of the OECD states' financial competitiveness: public debt aspect

LTStraipsnyje įvertinamas OECD šalių finansinis konkurencingumas, jį siejant su šalies gebėjimu efektyviai valdyti finansinius išteklius; savo ruožtu šiame straipsnyje šalies finansines veiklos efektyvumas vertinamas valstybės mokumo - gebėjimo valdyti valstybes skolą - kontekste. Siūlomas naujas alternatyvus valstybės skolos vertinimo rodiklis ir remiantis šiuo rodikliu įvertinamos OECD šalių valstybės skolos, o tuo pačiu ir jų finansinio konkurencingumo globalioje rinkoje lygis. Atskleistų dėsningumų pagrindu teikiami pasiūlymai valstybių skolos valdymo gerinimui. Pasiūlytas valstybės skolos ir ekonominės politikos vertinimo rodiklis įvardinamas kaip tarpgeneracinis skolos moralumo indeksas. Autoriai laikosi prielaidos, kad dabartinių kartų atsakomybė priimamų ekonominių sprendimų atžvilgiu nebūtų perkeliama ateities kartoms; tai reiškia, kad atsakomybės ribos turi buti sietinos su žmogaus gyvenimo trukme; tik tokiu atveju galima bent minimaliai kontroliuoti valstybės priimamus sprendimus, užtikrinti atsakomybes perimamumą (tame tarpe ir valstybės skolos atžvilgiu). Pasiūlytasis valstybės skolos rodiklis apskaičiuojamas kaip faktinis skolos padengimo laikotarpis padalytas iš vienos kartos (generacijos) amžiaus įverčio (čia lygus 25 metams). Autoriai siūlo penkis kokybinius finansinės atsakomybės lygius, siejamus su valstybės gebėjimu padengti skolas. Vertinant OECD šalių valstybės skolos padengimo galimybes, buvo laikomasi prielaidos, kad pagrindiniai skolos lygį lemiantys veiksniai - ekonomikos augimo tempas ir palūkanų normos - priklauso nuo praėjusio laikotarpio ekonomikos išsivystymo lygio.

ENThe paper suggests a new alternative debt evaluation index and justifies its criterion; on the basis of this criterion evaluates the public debt and the financial competitiveness of the OECD States. The research showed there are just 3 OECD States wherein the public debt is acceptable with regard to future generations. [...] The goals of the paper are to suggest a new alternative debt evaluation index and justify its criterion; on the basis of this criterion to evaluate the public debt and the financial competitiveness of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) States. The conceptual debt evaluation decision proposed in the paper integrates managerial, micro-macroeconomic and political approaches and let evaluate financial responsibility of present generations in respect of the futures ones. Methods of the research: The conception of debt and financial competitiveness evaluation is offered on the bases of economic literature and logic analysis and realized throughout of mathematic models. [... ] The following proposals to regulate the fiscal policy for the purpose of investments stimulation through financial competitiveness amelioration can be given using the results of the OECD States' debt estimation: • The accomplished investigation demonstrates that the majority of the OECD States run the intergenerationally immoral public debt management (financial) policy, which in long term could deteriorate those States financial attractiveness for external investments. An ability to manage States financial sources became especially important in our global world, where the new big economies (those of China, India and Russia) emerge. • The index of intergenerational public debt morality could be proposed as the complex alternative to the indexes that estimate the economical achievements of States.The estimation of the debt redemption possibilities is impossible without the use of other indexes: such as the growth rate, interest norms, the change of exchange rate, inflation level (the latter two were not used directly in this investigation). Each of these indexes estimates the economy's situation of the States but they do not estimate the functioning of the system as a whole. Thus the estimation of the debt redemption possibilities could be used as complex method (as the integrated index calculation) to determine the States economy's competitiveness. Especially this proposition could be significant for the UE in terms of the Stability pact criteria adaptations - actually used don't evaluate well all economic stability factors and are not well founded scientifically. • As advocates of the EU interests, to ameliorate its financial competitiveness, we suggest to initiate the creation of rules forming the greater financial discipline. Those rules must be based on the idea of the morally responsible vis-à-vis the future generations' economic policy and they could be supported by creation of an ad hoc purposeful EU fund for debts redemption of the most indebted EU States. The erection of clear targets to redeem public debts in 3G (or 4G period at the very outside) could help the better control of the EU States' governments financial activity.