Bankų sektoriaus rodiklių ir bendrojo vidaus produkto priklausomybės tendencijų vertinimas

LTXX a. pabaigoje ir XXI a. pradžioje finansų sektoriaus vystymosi tendencijos bei šiame sektoriuje kylančios problemos vis dažniau tampa mokslinių tyrimų objektu, nes sėkmingai funkcionuojantis finansų sektorius kiekvienoje šalyje yra svarbi ekonomikos augimo sąlyga. Tiriant finansų sistemos vystymąsi bei įtakojančius veiksnius, tampa neatsiejama ir susiformavusios finansų struktūros poveikio ekonominiams procesams problema. Europos Sąjungos šalių finansų sektoriaus ir bendrojo vidaus produkto ryšiui nustatyti, tyrimui naudoti bankų sektoriaus vystymosi rodikliai: Komercinių bankų turtas/(Komercinių + centrinio) bankų turtas; Centrinio banko turtas/Visas finansinis turtas; Centrinio banko turtas/BVP; Komercinių bankų turtas/BVP; Bankų depozitai/BVP; Likvidūs įsipareigojimai/ BVP; Finansų sistemos depozitai/BVP; Bankų kreditai privačiam sektoriui/BVP; Komercinių bankų ir kitų finansų institucijų kreditai privačiam sektoriui/BVP; Bankų pridėtinės išlaidos/visas bankų turtas; Grynoji palūkanų marža; Koncentracija (C3 turtas), kurie įvertina bankų sektoriaus dydį, aktyvumą ir efektyvumą. Gauti tyrimo rezultatai nepatvirtina kitų autorių, nagrinėjusių „senųjų“ Europos Sąjungos šalių finansų sektoriaus ir ekonomikos augimo priklausomybės, tyrimų, teigiančių, kad ekonomikos augimas sąlygoja rinkos tipo finansų sistemos struktūros formavimąsi, nes Baltijos šalyse, net ir sparčiai augant ekonomikai, dominuojantis stiprus bankų sektorius ir mažas vidutinis BVP, tenkantis vienam gyventojui, nesudaro sąlygų formuotis į rinkas orientuotai finansų sistemos struktūrai.

ENEconomists have been trying for a long time to establish advantages of bank and market financial structures over one another and to evaluate the influence on the growth of economy both in developed and developing countries as well as countries with rapid growth of economy, where the financial structures are just forming. Important research analyzing the tendencies of development of the financial sector and economy underlining the influence of the structure of the financial system on the growth of economy carried out by a group of scientists A. Demirgüç-Kunt, R. Levine and T. Beck gave rise to heated discussions already in 1999 and they last till this day. One of of which with the growth of economy may be different. Therefore R. Levine (1997) presented a theoretical model in his research, according to which he maintains that costs of acquisition of information and conclusion of transactions determine the development of financial markets and financial institutions, thus promoting the formation of different financial structures. Continuing the research together with Zervos (1998), R. Levine analyzed whether the securities markets or banks promote growth of economy, thus underlining the importance of the formed financial structure.The obtained results show that in cases of low level of development of economy capital markets are used little, and loans are used more often as the main source of financing. Thus financial brokerage promotes growth of economy as it allows the capital to earn bigger income, and growth in its turn provides resources for development of the financial structure. As integration processes in the financial sector in the European Union have been and are rapid and due to active process of consolidation and acquisition of banks encouraging potential investors to join the single space of EU, development strategies are transferred to other regions, it is likely that the majority of peculiarities of development may chronologically repeat themselves in countries, such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, that reach the new phase of development. Therefore the aim of this article is to carry out a research of correlation of indicators of development of the bank sector with the indicator characterizing growth of economy - gross domestic product - in the countries of the European Union and to establish whether bank-based or market-based financial structures may form different conditions for growth of economy.The research of the dependence of the indicators of the bank sector and gross domestic product analyzes tendencies of change of the indicators in the “old” 15 member states of the European Union and the 3 Baltic States in the period of 1995-2005. In order to distinguish the dependence of tendencies of change of the financial indicators and this macroeconomic indicator more clearly. by classifying the countries according to the index of financial structures calculated by scientist T. Beck, dividing all countries into having bank-based and market-based financial structures and countries with forming financial structure, in order to establish the peculiarities of influence of the indicators of development of the financial sector on the growth of economy. The research is an attempt to establish the peculiarities of correlation of the indicators of development of the bank sector and growth of economy, expressed by changes of GDP. This research stresses the influence of indicators characterizing the size, activity and efficiency of the bank sector to economic processes taking place in every country, expressed by changes of GDP.