Inductive modeling and discursive idealization in scenario planning
ENThis paper discusses the distinctive features of modeling and idealization in scenario planning. Scenarios are analytical narratives or complex causal stories about the distant future which are constructed in future studies and strategic management (business studies). They are different from conventional scientific predictions that are expected to be true or most probable, because scenario planning focuses on the uncertain and open aspects of the future which are the sources of threats and opportunities for stakeholders. Scenarios also differ from science fiction and social utopias, because scenario planners accept more stringent restrictions on creative imagination. Scenarios are inductive models grounded in the discursive multi-model idealizations, because they are created in group discussions with the participation of the experts and stakeholders, who alternate “brainstormings” and critical discussions, and do not expect to generate the best model but to learn from the future.
