Can return migration revitalize the Baltics? Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania engage their diasporas, with mixed results
ENIn the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - high emigration rates and shrinking, aging populations are leading to an impending demographic crisis. The region is one of the most rapidly depopulating in the world, and according to United Nations estimates, by 2050 Latvia’s population could shrink by 22 percent, while those in Lithuania and Estonia could decline by 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively. Population shrinkage in nothing new in the already sparsely populated Baltics: during periods of Nazi and Soviet occupations, the region suffered from tremendous loss of residents. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and opening of the borders to the West, the Baltics experienced significant emigration. Later, when all three Baltic states became members of the European Union in 2004, free movement within the bloc encouraged emigration; spurred by the 2009 global financial crisis, the region lost even more of its population. Despite some modest return migration from the United Kingdom given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the largest Baltic country, Lithuania, was home to 2.8 million people as of 2019, while the population in Latvia totaled 1.9 million, and that of Estonia 1.3 million. All three Baltic states have sizeable diasporas, with an estimated 20 percent of Latvians living abroad, and Lithuania and Estonia estimating 17 percent and 15 percent of their nationals, respectively, live outside their country of birth. While precise numbers are difficult to obtain, given free movement within the European Union, the Baltics are feeling the effects of these high emigration rates, and in turn are exploring different ways to woo back nationals and establish or solidify ties with members of the diaspora, as this article explores. Of the three countries, Estonia is proving the most successful in these and other areas, while Latvia appears to be ignoring the looming demographic crisis and lacking an immigration plan.
