OECD ülkelerinin tarimsal ticaret performansinin değerlendirilmesi: dinamik bir model önerisi

ENThroughout history, the agricultural sector has played an important role in the economies of both developed and developing countries, contributing to employment, GDP, international commerce, and, most importantly, rural development. Within the scope of the study, the performance of the OECD nations on agricultural product trade was analyzed using the proposed dynamic model. Panel data from 38 OECD countries from 2010 to 2019 were utilized in the study. Categorical Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Index (TFVE) approaches were employed in the study to examine in detail changes in OECD members' agricultural trade performance in efficiency, technology, and total factor productivity over time. The appropriate categories in the categorical DEA model were determined using the hierarchical clustering method for each year. In the established model, the indicators that facilitate trade such as "Port efficiency and transportation quality," "Customs and border management," "Government regulations," and "Finance and e-commerce," used as input variables while total agricultural trade size (total of imports and exports) included as output variables. When the 2010- 2019 period is considered, 20 OECD countries such as, Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, Czechia, Estonia, France, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, and Switzerland found to be nations with a TFVE greater than one. The TFVE value of Mexico, Italy, and Colombia, on the other hand, is 1, indicating that there has been no change in the index value throughout the 10-year analyzed period in these nations.On the other hand, it was found that there was a reduction in both technology and technical efficiency in the remaining 15 OECD nations, including Turkey, in 2019 compared to 2010, and the reasons for this should be identified and emergency action packages should be established. Keywords: agricultural products, trade, efficiency, categorical-DEA, Malmquist-Total Factor Productivity Index, OECD countries, agricultural trade.