Uncovering heterogeneity in achievement during the Covid-19 pandemic: math grades trajectories and their predictors in middle school

ENThe study aimed to uncover the potential heterogeneity and its predictors in middle school students’ math achievement during the Covid-19 pandemic. The data covered yearly math grade point averages in 6th, 7th, and 8th grade and national test scores for a cohort of 17,685 Lithuanian students (49.1% females). Growth mixture modeling showed that between 2020 and 2022, most students showed a slight normative decline in their math achievement. Still, a few distinct subgroups have demonstrated either a steep decline or a slow to a rapid increase in their math grades, while almost one-third consistently underperformed in math. The findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in students’ results during the pandemic. Understanding these differential patterns can help target pandemic-related educational recovery efforts more accurately. Keywords: Achievement trajectories; Growth mixture modeling; Covid-19 pandemic; Middle school; Student background.