Baltic Black sea union modeling: factors and perspectives

ENAn important feature of the current stage of world development is the increase in turbulence and tension, the increase in threats and the actualization of security issues. The creation of military-political and economic associations of countries makes it possible to unite efforts in solving security problems and ensuring their development. One of such promising associations can be cooperation between the countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region. The purpose of the article is to assess the prerequisites and possibilities for creating the Baltic-Black Sea union, modeling its various combinations. The subject of the research is the model of the economic and military union of the countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region. The implementation of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method made it possible, using mathematical tools, to assess the conditions and probability of creating a BBS union, based on a multi-criteria analysis of the military, political or economic potential of states, and also to model options for its composition. Results. The idea of creating a BBS has a long history, which is due to a whole range of historical, geographical, political and military prerequisites. Ensuring the security of the BBS countries includes not only a military aspect, but also involves the development of economic cooperation and development. The composition of the BBS can vary considerably: from a basic number of core countries to a broad open participation of the countries of the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Sea regions and all neighboring countries.The Baltic-Black Sea cooperation can become a very powerful economic entity. Focusing on multilateral cooperation of partner countries in various fields will unite both resource-rich countries and fairly developed countries that have formed their specialization in the new conditions of the digital economy. Practical implications. Of particular importance is the creation of unified transport corridors between the northern and southern seas of the European continent. BBS can become part of a multi-stage and multi-level security system in Europe and in the world as a whole. The value/originality of this publication is due to the high relevance of the issue in the context of open military aggression and the need to find new mechanisms for ensuring collective security in Europe. Key words: Baltic-Black Sea Union, regional security, collective security, economic cooperation, alliances. [From the publication]