Potential output in DSGE models

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Collection:
Mokslo publikacijos / Scientific publications
Document Type:
Knyga / Book
Language:
Anglų kalba / English
Title:
Potential output in DSGE models
Authors:
Publication Data:
Vilnius : Lietuvos bankas, 2011.
Pages:
Elektroninis (PDF), 49 p
Series:
Working Paper Series; 9
Contents:
Introduction — 1. Conceptual issues in the DSGE framework — 1.1. Potential output notions — 1.1.1. Trend, efficient and natural output — 1.1.2. The design of optimal monetary policy — 1.1.3. Conditional vs. unconditional potential output — 1.2. Estimates of potential output — 1.2.1. Comparison of historical estimates — 1.2.2. Robustness of DSGE model-based estimates — 1.2.3. Monetary policy design in empirical models — 1.2.4. The output gaps as predictors of inflation — 1.3. Impulse-response analysis — 2. Central bank DSGE model-based estimates — 2.1. Potential output estimates in the NAWM — 2.2. Potential output estimates in the CNB’s g3 model — 2.3. Potential output estimates in the MNB’s Puskas model — 2.4 Comparison across the models — 3. Is the flexible-price output gap a good indicator of inflation? — 3.1. Phillips curve-based analysis — 3.2 Conditional correlation analysis — Conclusions — References.
Keywords:
LT
Pinigai. Valiuta / Money. Currency; Ekonominė analizė. Prognozavimas / Economic analysis. Forecasting; Ekonominė padėtis / Economic conditions.
Summary / Abstract:

LTDinaminiai stochastiniai bendrosios pusiausvyros (DSBP) modeliai - vis labiau populiarėjanti centrinių bankų taikoma priemonė makroekonominių procesų prognozavimui ir pinigų politikos analizei. Šiame straipsnyje nagrinėjami potencialios gamybos sampratos DSBP modeliuose ir jos vertinimo taikant šiuos modelius klausimai. Pateikiami potencialios gamybos ir gamybos atotrūkio įverčiai, gauti taikant Europos Centrinio Banko ir Europos šalių centrinių bankų (Čekijos, Vengrijos) sudarytus empirinius DSBP modelius. Jie lyginami su atitinkamais įverčiais, nustatytais remiantis įprastiniais potencialios gamybos vertinimo metodais. Straipsnyje taip pat nagrinėjama, kiek DSBP modeliais nustatyti gamybos atotrūkio įverčiai gali būti naudingi numatant infliacijos kitimą. [Iš leidinio]

ENIn view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical estimates of potential output/output gaps on the basis of selected DSGE models developed by the European System of Central Banks’ staff. These estimates are compared to the corresponding estimates obtained applying more traditional methods. Finally, the paper assesses the usefulness of the DSGE model-based output gaps for gauging inflationary pressures. Keywords: potential output, simulation and forecasting models, monetary policy. [From the publication]

Subject:
Ekonomika / Economics
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https://www.lituanistika.lt/content/100836
Updated:
2023-12-11 19:01:44
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